Strategic foresight for uncertain times
A practical guide to horizon scanning and scenario planning
In a world defined by volatility, complexity, and rapid change, strategic foresight is no longer optional. It’s how resilient organisations stay ahead by anticipating disruption, testing assumptions, and making decisions that hold up under pressure.
This guide offers a practical approach to horizon scanning and scenario planning, helping leaders move from reactive firefighting to proactive strategy.
What is strategic foresight
Strategic foresight is the discipline of exploring possible futures to inform better decisions today. It blends creativity with evidence, intuition with analysis, and helps organisations:
identify emerging trends and weak signals,
challenge assumptions and cognitive bias,
explore alternative futures and stress-test plans, and
build adaptive strategies that remain relevant as conditions shift.
As the UK Government’s Futures Toolkit notes, foresight is “as much an art as a science,” requiring diverse perspectives, structured tools, and a willingness to confront uncomfortable possibilities.
Horizon scanning
Horizon scanning is the process of systematically exploring external trends, risks, and opportunities. It helps leaders spot early signals of change before they become crises or missed opportunities.
Key practices include:
trend mapping: tracking social, technological, economic, environmental, and political shifts,
driver analysis: identifying forces that shape the operating environment, and
cross-sector insight: learning from how other industries respond to disruption.
The Institute of Risk Management recommends combining horizon scanning with stakeholder dialogue and expert input to ensure relevance and rigour.
Scenario planning
Scenario planning helps organisations imagine multiple plausible futures not to predict, but to prepare. It enables leaders to, explore how different trends might interact, understand the implications of extreme or unexpected events and identify strategic options that are robust across scenarios.
Effective scenario planning involves:
Defining critical uncertainties
Building diverse, coherent scenarios
Stress-testing current plans against each scenario
Identifying no-regret moves and contingent strategies
As CIPD’s foresight research highlights, scenario planning expands the strategic imagination, helping organisations avoid groupthink and short-termism.
Embedding foresight into strategy
To move from insight to impact, organisations must embed foresight into their strategic rhythm. This involves:
Regular scanning: build horizon scanning into quarterly planning cycles.
Inclusive dialogue: engage diverse voices across functions and levels.
Decision support: use scenarios to inform investment, policy, and transformation choices.
Impact tracking: monitor signals and adjust strategy as conditions evolve.
Unlock Potential supports organisations in building this capability; combining behavioural insight, strategic clarity, and operational depth to help leaders navigate uncertainty with confidence.
